Frequently Asked Questions

  1. Expected Points
  2. Expected Win/Loss

Expected Points

Expected points are an estimate of points per play based on down, distance and line of scrimmage using historical play data.

Points given for offense and defense are offensive/defensive plays and plays negated by penalty. Offensive and defensive breakdowns (run/pass) may not add up due to penalties and other plays (eg, bad snap or kneel).

Special teams plays are all kicking plays. Bad snap and kneel downs from punt formations will be counted as general offense or defense.

Last play of half is considered to be worth 0 points unless it is a scoring play.

Turnovers are considered to be the lost value of the pre-play expectation and the negative value of the opponent's next play expectation.

Expected Win/Loss

See: Pythagorean Expectation (Use in pro football)